中国对外贸易与国际直接投资的关系及其演变趋势——学习十六大报告关于“引进来”和“走出去”相结合战略的思考

在改革开放前,中国的对外贸易与利用国外的直接投资之间呈现出一定程度的相互促进关系,而与对外直接投资之间的线性关系不十分明显。改革开放以来,国外直接投资对中国对外贸易具有替代效应,但总体表现为显著的互补效应和相互促进关系,中国的对外直接投资对中国对外贸易发展的影响表现为正效应。今后,随着经济自由化、全球化的发展,中国的对外贸易与国际直接投资之间的关系将从互相促进的关系演变为一种相互融合的关系。

Relationship between China Foreign Trade and International Direct Investment and its Developing Tendency

Before opening up to the world, China foreign trade and overseas direct investment has stimulated one another for common development, while there was no obvious linear relationship. After opening up, overseas direct investment has a substitution effect on China foreign trade, displaying a remarkable mutual complement and mutual promotion relationship. China foreign direct investment has a positive effect on the development of China foreign trade. In the future, with the globalization of economy, the relationship between China foreign trade and international direct investment will change from mutual promotion to mutual merging.