影响中国农业保险发展效应的实证分析

运用现代计量经济学方法对我国改革开放以来的农业保险发展状况进行实证和判断,证明：（1）农民人均纯收入、保费收入和保费支出这三个变量之间存在两个协整关系。根据模型估计结果,农民人均纯收入、保费收入和保费支出之间存在显著的误差修正机制。同时,（2）随着农村居民人均纯收入的增加,农业保险保费收入和赔款支出都在增加;农业保险保费收入和赔款支出具有一致的变化趋势。（3）农业保险保费收入增加会引起保费支出的增长,反之亦然。基于此,提出政策建议。

An Empirical Analysis on the Development Effect of Chinese Agricultural Insurance

This paper uses the modern econometric methods to obtain demonstration and judgment for the evolvable status of China’s agricultural insurance since the reform and opening:(1) There are three variables: farmers per capita net income,the premium income and insurance premium expenditures,and there are two cointegration relationship existing between them.According to the results of the model estimation,the per capita net income of farmers,the premium income and expenditure have significant error correction mechanism.At the same time;(2) as per capita net income of rural residents increases,agricultural insurance premium income and claims expenses are increasing;agricultural insurance premium income and claims expenditure are in line with the trend;(3) Agricultural insurance premium income will cause premiums expenditure to increase,and vice versa.Based on these,the paper brings forward a number of policy recommendations.