| 基于ARIMA模型的我国航空货运量预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周叶,肖灵机.基于ARIMA模型的我国航空货运量预测分析[J].南昌航空大学学报,2010,12(3):22-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周叶 肖灵机 |
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| 作者单位： | 南昌航空大学,江西,南昌,330063 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金"物流产业与区域经济的互动与协调发展研究"，江西省青年科学基金项目"城市物流协同配送网络构建及仿真优化研究--以南昌市为例" |
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| 摘 要： | 借助PASW Statistics软件对2002年1月至2009年12月我国航空货运量月度数据序列进行分析,发现我国航空货运量的发展变化具有明显的上升趋势和季节性。通过构建航空货运量的ARIMA预测模型并进行检验,结果表明,ARIMA模型对原始数据序列有着较好的拟合效果,模型的预测误差较小,可应用于短期内我国航空货运量的预测,为进一步的航空货运市场调控提供有效依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 航空 货运量 预测 ARIMA模型 |
Study on Forecasting of the Aeronautic Cargo Capacity in China Based on ARIMA Model |
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| ZHOU Ye,XIAO Lin-ji.Study on Forecasting of the Aeronautic Cargo Capacity in China Based on ARIMA Model[J].Journal of Nanchang Institute of Aeronautical Technology(Social Science),2010,12(3):22-27. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Ye XIAO Lin-ji |
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| Institution: | ZHOU Ye XIAO Lin-ji(Nanchang Hangkong University,Nanchang,Jiangxi,330063,China) |
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| Abstract: | It is shown that the development of China＇s aeronautic cargo capacity has an obvious ascending trend and seasonal character based on the analysis on monthly cargo capacity serial from January 2002 to December 2009 with the PASW Statistics software.The ARIMA times series model of China＇s aeronautic cargo capacity is established,and the result indicates that the ARIMA model has good fitting effects on the primary data series,and the forecast error is very small,which can be used to forecast short-term aeronautic cargo capacity,and it will further provide some effective basis to supervise the native aeronautic cargo market. |
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| Keywords: | aviation cargo capacity forecasting ARIMA model |
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