The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves |
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| Authors: | Ali Mosleh George Apostolakis |
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| Affiliation: | This work is based on A. Mosleh's Ph.D. dissertation submitted to the School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of California, Los Angeles. He is now with Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., 2260 University Drive, Newport Beach, California 92660.;Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering Department, 5532 Boelter Hall, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90024. |
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| Abstract: | A method is developed for estimating a probability distribution using estimates of its percentiles provided by experts. The analyst's judgment concerning the credibility of these expert opinions is quantified in the likelihood function of Bayes'Theorem. The model considers explicitly the random variability of each expert estimate, the dependencies among the estimates of each expert, the dependencies among experts, and potential systematic biases. The relation between the results of the formal methods of this paper and methods used in practice is explored. A series of sensitivity studies provides insights into the significance of the parameters of the model. The methodology is applied to the problem of estimation of seismic fragility curves (i.e., the conditional probability of equipment failure given a seismically induced stress). |
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| Keywords: | Expert opinions Bayesian methods seismic fragilities |
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