中美石油安全水平对经济增长影响的对比研究——基于灰色关联分析

为科学地评价比较中美石油安全水平对经济增长的影响程度，文章采用主成分分析方法，选取采储比水平、储量接替率、消费弹性系数、原油价格波动系数、对外依存度和石油占一次能源消费比重等6个要素指标，构成一个新的石油安全指标评价体系，并利用灰色关联方法比较分析了不同时间段内中美两国的石油安全水平与经济增长之间的关联度，得出自21世纪以来，美国经济发展对石油安全水平的依赖程度要远大于中国的结论。

The Comparative Study of the Security Level of Oil Impact on the Economic Growth between China and US --Based on the Gray Interrelation Method

To compare the China-US petroleum security level to the economic growth, the article uses the principal component analysis method, selects six essential factor indicators： reserve-production ratio, reserves replacing rate, the expense elasticity coefficient, the crude price coefficient of fluctuation, the foreign degree of dependency and the proportion of the petroleum in energy use, constitutes a new petroleum security target index system, analyses China and US＇s petroleum security level and the economic growth relations using the gray interrelation method in different period and draws conclusion that American economic development is more dependent on the petroleum security level than that of China.