中国省域人口总数修订

人口统计数据是制定宏观经济政策和规划人口发展的基础。中国非普查年度人口总数常常与普查年度人口总数差异较大,而关于中国非普查年度人口统计数据修订的研究较少。建立省域人口增长率的固定效应模型,描述中国各省域人口总数的变化趋势,基于拟合模型和普查数据,提出中国省域人口总数修订方法,并对2001年至2009年中国省域人口总数进行修订,结果表明:2001年至2009年中国人口总数修订值与《中国统计年鉴》公布的人口总数之间存在差异,差异率低于0.5%;省域人口总数修订值变化相对平稳,在年度之间的变化幅度相对小,能够更合理反映各省域人口总数的发展趋势。

Revision of China's Provincial Population Data

Demographic data is the foundation of establishing macroeconomic policy and planning population development.There was difference of the total population between non-census years and census years.However,there are few researches about the revision of non-census year population data. For the growth rate of provincial population,this article establishes fixed effect model to fit the trend of gross provincial population.Based on the fitted model and census year population data,a method to revise the gross provincial population is provided that is used to revise the gross provincial population from 2001 to 2009 year.The results obtained shows that there is difference between the revision of China's provincial population and the population of Chinese statistical yearbook.The relative difference of them is less than 0 .5%.The change of the provincial population revision is relatively stable,and the variation in these years is relatively small.And these population revisions will be more reasonable to reflect the changing trend of the provincial population.