The Expectation-Threshold model of reproductive decision making

It is proposed that as expectations about parenting become increasingly high, couples have an increasing tendency to decide to have a(or another) child. Similarly, as parenting expectations become increasingly low, couples have an increasing tendency to decide on sterilization. Couples without extremely high or low expectations continue to use contraceptives. Expectations are defined as Subjective Expected Utilities (SEUs) for having or not having a child. Preliminary results support the model and suggest that the threshold for making these decisions is not at neutral, but is conservative so that couples must have fairly high or low expectations before making such binding decisions are parenting or sterilization. The fact that data reveal that this exists supports the Expectancy-Threshold model, but it also requires a change in SEU Theory's maximization rule for some kinds of decisions.The authors wish to thank Carole Baker, former executive Director of the National Alliance for Optional Parenthood, and the board members of that organization for their cooperation, and Dr. Barbara Beach who helped with the data analysis. Funding was provided, in part, by The Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, through a grant, No. 5 P30 HDO 9397, from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development