农业转移人口省际迁移理论与实证研究

随着户籍制度改革的深化和推广，我国农业转移人口跨区、跨省迁移的自由度越来越大，而自发迁移的农业转移人口迁往何地是遵循经济理性原则的。基于经济理性选择理论，从收益成本的视角构建农业转移人口省际迁移测算模型；采用我国31个省区统计数据，测算2013年各省区农业转移人口的省际迁移收益矩阵、人口外迁拉力和内迁引力，分析表明：各省区内迁引力差距巨大，而外迁拉力基本一致；农业转移人口是流入本省区城镇还是流向外省区城镇，主要取决于本省区的内迁引力，内迁引力大于外迁拉力的省区即为人口净迁入省区。进一步的预测分析表明，各地人口还会流向环渤海、长三角、珠三角等发达地区。人口迁出地区需要有超越发达地区的经济发展速度，并加快改善劳动力收益状况，才能留住更多的农业转移人口。

The Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Transfer Population’s Interprovincial Migration

With the deepening and popularization of register system,the free degree of China’s agricultural population to transfer between districts and between provinces becomes bigger and bigger,however,voluntary transferred agricultural population always follows economic principle.Based on economic rational choice theory, from the perspective of benefit cost,the measuring model for interprovincial transferred agricultural population is constructed.By using statistical data of 31 provinces and municipalities,we calculate payoff matrix of the transferred population,outward transfer pull and inward transfer gravitation,and analysis shows that the inward gravitation in each province and municipality is big while the outward transfer pull is basically the same,that whether the provincial agricultural population transfers into the local town or the other provinces is mainly determined by the inward transfer gravitation,and that the provinces and the municipalities whose inward transfer gravitation is bigger than outward transfer pull have net population inflow.Further analysis and prediction reveal that the population in each place will flow to the developed provinces and municipalities around Bohai area,Yangtze River delta and Zhujiang River delta.The places with outward transfer population need the economic development bigger than the developed places and need to improve labor wages so that more agricultural transfer population can be kept in local places.