不同阶段人民币汇率的价格传导机制分析

 人民币汇率的变动对国内价格变动是否存在传导作用，这种传导是否存在阶段性，是研究人民币汇率变动与国内价格变动之间关系的重要内容，是从宏观上进行物价水平控制必须明确的重要问题之一。本文从实证的角度研究中国的汇率传递及其对价格变动的影响。结合中国实际情况，运用最新数据，将汇率变动分为三个阶段，用VAR模型进行分析，通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法，发现人民币价格传递效应在不同阶段存在较大差异，且存在时滞，效应也是不完全的。

Analysis of the Price Transmission Mechanism of RMB Exchange Rate at Different Stages

Whether the changes in the RMB exchange rate conduct the changes on domestic prices,and whether the conduction possess periodicity,are both the important content in study of the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and domestic price changes,and also the important issue in macro-controlling on price level.This paper empirically analyzed the effects of China's exchange rate conduction.Considering the actual situation in China and using the latest data,the paper divided exchange rate movements into thre...