明代徽州田价发覆

徽州田价是徽商资本流动的风向标。以往研究认为，明代徽州田价呈倒U形增长或直线增长。两种观点都值得商榷，原因是其田价处理存在两类错误：　第一，天启前的徽州田价因忽视田税推割延迟而被高估；第二，忽视了亩的标准不一、亩价数据的高离散度对平均亩价有效性与代表性的影响。在充分考虑田税推割延迟的因素之后，以田价年租比代替亩价指标，通过趋势分析发现：　明代徽州田价既不呈倒U形增长，也不呈直线增长，而呈N形增长。这是徽商资本在嘉靖“严肃海禁”后大量从土地流向盐业、典业，又在万历商业环境恶化后持续回流土地的结果。

An Inquiry into Huizhou Farmland Prices in the Ming Dynasty

Huizhou farmland prices indicate Hui merchants capital flow.According to previous scholarships,the trend of Huizhou farmland prices during the Ming dynasty exhibited an inverted-U curve or a rising straight-line.We believe both interpretations are wrong for two reasons.First,Huizhou farmland price data before Tianqi era were overestimated due to the neglect of the effect of tax delay on farmland property transactions(TDFPT).Second,the validity and representativeness of average Mu price should be questioned ...