Career mobility as a Poisson process: An application to the career dynamics of men and women in the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency from the Civil War to World War II

Poisson process models of upward mobility in job rewards are developed and estimated using event history techniques on data from one organization over a period of 80 years. The models developed permit the inclusion of independent variables which vary over a person's career and are used to analyze differences in the mobility of men and women. The main findings are (1) the career dynamics of men and women are similar in general form, both best described by a segmented, heterogeneous, and nonstationary Poisson process; (2) parametric differences exist between the models for men and women in terms of how certain independent variables affect the rate of arrival of opportunities to move up in the reward hierarchy and in terms of how others affect the rate of being given or taking advantage of such opportunities; and (3) both men and women appear to benefit by being in competition with one another for available opportunities. Theoretical interpretations of these results are discussed in relation to differences in the flow of opportunities to locations in the reward hierarchy occupied predominantly by men versus those occupied predominantly by women.