上海市流动人口特征与区域经济发展关系研究

利用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查和"六普"数据,对2005—2010年上海市外来流动人口的变化与上海经济社会发展的关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:外来流动人口对上海GDP增长的贡献度达30%以上;近5年,上海流动人口从中心区向近、远郊流动的地理分布变化与上海的投资增长中心逐渐向近郊转移的趋势有很强的对应性,同时,流动人口的区域分布与上海工业企业的区域分布间有着极高的正向相关性。外来流动人口在缓解上海经济发展与劳动力相对不足的同时,其低水平的就业结构一定程度上制约了产业结构升级,导致第二产业的"滞移问题",减缓了第三产业中现代服务业的发展步伐。

The Relation between the Characteristics of the Floating Population and the Regional Economic Development in Shanghai

Using the data of 1% national population the paper studies the relation between the changes sample survey 2005 and the 6th national population census, of the floating population and the economic development in Shanghai from 2005 to 2010. The results show that： the floating population makes more than 30% contributions to GDP growth in Shanghai; in the recent 5 years, the change of geographical distribution of the migrants from cen- tral areas to the near and far suburb areas is highly corresponding to the tendency of the city~ investment - growth centers having shifted to the near suburb areas. The regional distribution of migrants is consistent with that of in- dustrial enterprises in the city. The floating population alleviated the relative lack of labor in the economic devel- opment of Shanghai, but its low - level employment structure also restricts the upgrade of the city＇s industrial structure, with the city＇s second industry being stranded and the third industry slowing down its development of modem service.