Technological forecasting a criticism of the Delphi technique |
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Authors: | R. E. Overbury |
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Affiliation: | Ministry of technology, London, UK |
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Abstract: | The author criticises the “Delphi” method of forecasting technological developments by obtaining a consensus of opinion among experts. He argues that the problem is not to forecast what might happen, but rather to decide what should happen and he suggests improvements in the Delphi technique which would change it from an ad hoc method old crytal ball gazing” into a system for continuous consultation among “responsible organizations”. |
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