种粮大户经营风险感知机理与实证检验

基于安徽省21个产粮大县403个种粮大户的问卷调查，运用计划行为理论分析框架，构建序次Logit模型检验种粮大户的风险感知水平及其影响因素。在检验结果的基础上建立解释结构模型（ISM），探究各因素对农户风险感知水平的影响机制。研究发现，技术培训频率、重大亏损经历和家庭务农人口对种粮大户风险感知水平产生显著正向影响，盈利动机强度、政策鼓励、家庭成员态度、农田基础设施完善程度、规模经营经验、市场风险应对能力、当期盈利对种粮大户风险感知水平产生显著负向影响。农田基础设施、过往亏损经历、当期盈利和技术培训频率是影响种粮大户风险感知水平的浅层因素，市场风险应对策略、盈利动机和规模经营年限是中层因素，而政策鼓励、家庭成员态度和家庭务农人口则是深层因素。

Risk Perception Mechanism and Empirical Test of Large Grain-growers

Based on the data of 403 large grain-growers from 21 major grain-producing counties in Anhui province and using the analysis framework of Theory of Planned Behavior, this paper built a logit model to test risk perception of large grain-growers. And then it built ISM to test hierarchy of risk perception. The conclusions are: the risk perception of large grain-growers is affected by ATTI, SN, PBC, FB, ORGA and SELF. Technical training frequency, experience of loss and number of family members engaged in agriculture have positive influence on the risk perception of them; while profit motive, policy, family attitude, infrastructure, scale operation qualifications, market risk coping capacity and current profits have negative influence on risk perception. The infrastructure, experience of loss, current profits and training frequency are shallow factors; Market risk coping capacity, profit motive and scale operation qualifications are mid-level factors; and policy, family attitude and number of family members engaged in agriculture are deep factors.