积极财政政策淡出为时尚早

近期来淡出积极财政政策的呼声甚高 ,认为过重的税收严重地抑制了民间投资的积极性 ;而且 ,随着国债的继续增发 ,财政风险会加大 ,最终会引发财政危机。其实 ,民间投资低迷的根本原因不是税高而是国内有效需求仍然不振。此时“淡出”将会导致恶性通货紧缩与经济危机。税既不能减也不能增 ,可以继续通过增发国债解决资金来源。国债是储蓄的一种延伸形式 ,储蓄非债 ,国债亦非债。积极财政政策目前的真正问题在于财政投资结构太偏重长项大项

It Is Too Early to Weaken the Positive Financial Policy

These days, the call of weakening positive financial policy is strengthened, which argues that the overweight tax has seriously restrained the zeal of investment among the people. And following the increasing national debt,the public finance risk can be enlarged, and it may initiate the financial crisis finally. However, the root cause of low investment among the people is not the high level tax but that the internal effective demand is still depressed. To "fade out " the positive financial policy at this time may lead to malignant deflation and economic crisis. So the tax can neither be subtracted nor be increased. As for the fund, we can increase it by way of increasing the national debt, which is one kind of prolonged form of the savings. The savings is non debt, so the national debt is non debt too. The real problem of present positive financial policy is that its investment structure is too long and too big.