Demographic change, macroeconomic conditions, and the murder rate: The case of the United States, 1934–2006 |
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| Authors: | John M. Nunley Richard Alan Seals Jr. Joachim Zietz |
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| Affiliation: | aDepartment of Economics, College of Business Administration, University of Wisconsin—La Crosse, La Crosse, WI 54601, United States;bDepartment of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849-5049, United States;cDepartment of Economics and Finance, Jennings A. Jones College of Business, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN 37132, United States;dEBS Business School, EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 3, 65189 Wiesbaden, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Fluctuations in aggregate crime rates contrary to recent shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population have cast doubt on the predictive power of the age–crime hypothesis. By examining a longer time horizon, back to the early 1930s, we show that the percentage of the young population is a robust predictor of the observed large swings in the U.S. murder rate over time. However, changes in the misery index—the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates—significantly contribute to explaining changes in the murder rate. This applies, in particular, to those changes that are at odds with the long-run trend of the U.S. age distribution, such as the decline in the murder rate in the latter part of the 1970s or its increase starting around the middle of the 1980s. |
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| Keywords: | JEL classification: J10 J11 |
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