硫排放交易机制和硫税对大气污染治理的影响研究

本文以2010年中国投入产出表为基础数据，构建了动态CGE模型，进而根据此模型系统量化研究硫排放权交易与硫税在实现大气污染治理目标中的作用，并分析了实现该目标对宏观经济的影响。研究结果表明，在实现大气污染治理目标的前提下对宏观经济影响最小的政策措施为上述两种市场机制的组合。具体措施为，在销售环节对化石能源征收硫税，在生产环节对SO2排放量居前10的产业实行排放权交易机制。

The Impact of SO2 Emissions Trading Mechanism and Sulfur Tax on Air Pollution Governance

A dynamic CGE model is constructed and employed based on 2010 Input-Output table of China, to quantitatively study the role of SO2 emissions in trading mechanism and sulfur tax in order to realize the target of air pollution governance in China. Furthermore, we also analyze the effect of these policies on macro-economy in the future. The results show that, under the premise of the realization of the air pollution control objective, the policies of the minimum macro economic impact are the combination of the above two market mechanisms. Concretely, SO2 tax should be levied in the sale process and emission trading mechanism should be utilized to the top 10 SO2 emission industries in the production process.