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Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example |
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| Authors: | M. Granger Morgan Samuel C. Morris Max Henrion Deborah A. L. Amaral William R. Rish |
| Affiliation: | Departments of Engineering and Public Policy and of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213.;Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Division, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York 11973.;Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213.;American Chemical Society Fellowship Program, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C. Formerly with Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University.;EBASCO, Lyndhurst, NJ 07071. Formerly with Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University. |
| Abstract: | Expert judgments expressed as subjective probability distributions provide an appropriate means of incorporating technical uncertainty in some quantitative policy studies. Judgments and distributions obtained from several experts allow one to explore the extent to which the conclusions reached in such a study depend on which expert one talks to. For the case of sulfur air pollution from coal-fired power plants, estimates of sulfur mass balance as a function of plume flight time are shown to vary little across the range of opinions of leading atmospheric scientists while estimates of possible health impacts are shown to vary widely across the range of opinions of leading scientists in air pollution health effects. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty subjective expert judgement stochastic simulation air pollution health effects sulfate sulfur air pollution long-range transport coal-fired power plant |