基于DPG要因分析法的中国产业结构变化

产业结构调整对促进我国经济增长具有重要作用。利用199720022007年中国投入产出表数据,根据完全需要系数矩阵计算了最终需求各项生产诱发系数和生产诱发依存度;根据同比例增长的偏离DPG(DeviationfromProportionalGrowth)要因分析方法,从各产业和分解最终需求各项两方面分析了不同时期影响中国经济增长的主要因素。分析结果表明19972007年出口始终是中国经济增长的主要源泉,其中19972002年间,经济增长的主要因素是出口和政府消费的增长;20022007年间,经济增长的主要因素是技术进步和出口;但居民消费的持续下降提示政府在加强内需,调整宏观经济政策方面的必要性和紧迫性。

An Analysis of China’s Industrial Structural Changes Based on DPG Model

Industrial restructuring is very important for China’s economic growth.Based on the 1997,2002 and 2007 InputOutput Tables,the article calculates the production induction coefficient and the dependent coefficient of final demand by using the Leontief inverse matrix.It also analyzes changes in China’s industrial structure and major causes of China’s economic growth in different period from the perspectives of industrial structure and decomposed final demand by using DPG model.Our analyses indicate that:export is the main source of China’s economic growth from 1997 to 2007,export and government consumption are the main driving forces of economic growth over 19972002,technical progress and export are the major forces behind economic growth between 2002 and 2007.At the same time,sustained decline in the final consumption highlights the necessity and urgency of increasing domestic demand and adjusting macroeconomic policies.