“后危机”时代中国多区域支付政策的CGE模型、模拟及分析

 通过构建一个后危机背景下的中国多区域支付政策模型及模拟系统来进行相关政策模拟。该模型基于多区域经济学理论，应用可计算一般均衡技术与方法，数据上采用8区域8部门的社会核算矩阵。模型考虑了人口分组与流动，资本流动和区域均衡机制等，使劳动力和资本可以跨区域跨部门流动，并可通过区域变量可以调控和测度区域差距。最后利用该模型针对3种中国区域支付政策方案（单区域和多区域）进行了模拟。模拟发现：当地方政府增加对本地居民的支付后城市居民的终生累积效用会得到增长，发达地区的农村居民效用会有小幅下降，而欠发达地区的农村居民效用会有小幅增长；当地城镇就业岗位会得到增加，但是农村就业会有所减少；同时中央政府源于该区域的财政收入会增长，而地方政府收入由于转移支出而下降。

CGE Model on Multi-Regional Payment Policy of China in the Era of Post-Crisis

In this paper, firstly we introduce the progress of Multi-regional economics and CGE. And then, we develop a multi-regional payment policy model in the era of post-crisis. This model bases on the theory of multi-regional economics, applies the CGE technology and method, and uses the data of 8 regions and 8 sectors SAM. This model makes progress in household category, capital fluidity, and regional equilibrium mechanism. At last, we simulate 3 typical scenarios of regional payment policy in China, including single regional policy and multi-regional policies. We find that if the local government increases payment to its household then it will be: 1, the accumulated utilities of the urban households will increase, the accumulated utilities of the rural households in the developed regions will decrease, and the accumulated utilities of the rural households in the developing regions will increase; 2, the employee in the urban will increase and that in the rural will decrease; 3, the income of the central government from the region will increase and the income of the local government will decrease.