区域市场整合与对外直接投资的逆向溢出效应——来自中国省级行政区的经验证据

本文在区域市场整合的制度背景下探讨对外直接投资(ODI)对母国经济增长的逆向溢出效应。首先,以新增长理论为基础,建立全要素生产率(TFP)内生于ODI和市场整合程度的理论模型;其次,利用中国2003-2012年的省际面板数据进行实证分析;最后,通过DEA-Malmquist指数将TFP分解为技术水平变化、资源配置效率变化和规模效率变化三部分,揭示溢出效应的传导途径。研究表明:区域市场整合与ODI在促进技术进步方面具有显著的替代效应、在优化资源配置方面具有显著的互补效应、在实现规模经济方面不存在显著作用,三方面合成之后二者对TFP的影响表现出显著的替代效应。为了保证结论的可靠性,本文考虑了ODI的内生性,对结果进行了稳健性检验,比较了不同类别样本中ODI的边际效应。

Regional Market Integration and ODI's Reverse Spillover Effect: Empirical Evidence from China's Provinces

The reverse spillover effect of Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) on home country's economic growth is investigated in the institutional background of regional market integration. First of all, based on New Growth Theory, the theoretical model which makes Total Factor Productivity (TFP) determined by ODI and the degree of regional market integration is established. Then, China's province-level panel data during 2003-2012 to do empirical research is used. Last, DEA-Malmquist index is used to decompose TFP into three parts: technological level change, resource allocation efficiency change and scale efficiency change, which reveals the channels through which ODI impacts TFP. The empirical results show that: regional market integration and ODI have significant substitution effect on promoting technical progress, have significant complementary effect on optimizing resources allocation, and have no significant effect on achieving economies of scale. After synthesizing the three aspects above, regional market integration and ODI demonstrate significant substitution effect on TFP. In order to ensure the reliability of conclusions, the endogeneity of ODI, test the robustness of the model, and compare ODI's marginal effect in different sample cases are considered.