延边对朝、俄贸易与经济增长实证分析

延边与朝鲜、俄罗斯毗邻,对朝、俄贸易在延边对外贸易中占据重要地位。利用1989-2008年的统计数据对延边出口贸易、进口贸易、经济增长进行实证分析,对变量之间进行协整检验并建立误差修正模型,结果表明,从长期来看,延边对朝、俄出口与GDP、进口之间存在着长期稳定的关系;GDP和对朝、俄出口也存在着长期的均衡关系。从短期来看,对朝、俄出口与GDP、进口以及GDP与对朝、俄出口的长期关系都出现了偏离,修正速度较慢。此外,GDP和对朝、俄进口不存在双向的因果关系。

Analysis of Economic Growth in Yanbian and Trades with DPRK and Russia

Adjacent to DPRK and Russia,Yanbian plays an important role in trading with the two countries.Based on an empirical analysis of the import-export trading and economic growth from 1989 to 2008,variables coordinated checking and the construction of mode of error correction,it has been shown that there is a long-term stable relation between the export to the two countries and the import and GDP;GDP and the export also keep a long-run equilibrium.However,derivations appear when relations between import and GDP as well as the relations between GDP and the export are reviewed at the short-run.The relevant revision is carried out slowly.Besides,there is no two-way causality between GDP and the export to DPRK and Russia.