关系资产与中非间贸易:基于40国面板数据的实证研究

中非间长期友好关系是否产生贸易促进效应是双方外交关系可持续性及各自应对外部冲击能力的重要支撑，基于中非间较同质化的外交关系资产背景，通过引入弱惩罚和强惩罚机制的关系持续期和以外交关系等级衡量的投资强度变量来测度关系资产，以克服外交活动与贸易间存在的内生性问题，并纳入冲突力对中非间关系的影响，并利用2001～2017年非洲40国贸易数据构建面板校正误差模型，考察中非国家间关系资产对双边贸易及细分初级产品和制成品贸易是否存在促进效应。研究表明，关系资产对中非贸易有显著促进作用，但存在两个相反的关系资产对贸易影响机制，即关系持续期作为非纯公共产品的贸易促进作用和对较大经济规模国家的贸易摊薄效应；中国经济增长对中非双向出口贸易有较强带动作用，对非洲国家关税减免政策具有互惠特征，对中非双边贸易均有明显促进作用，但对不同细分品类具有差异化影响；中国和非洲国家应合力提升关系投资强度，以进一步发挥惯性力和国家间关系的贸易提升力作用，以贸易促进支撑中非全面战略合作伙伴关系的发展。

Relationship assets and China Africa trade:empirical study based on panel data of 40 countries

Whether the long-term friendly China Africa relations can produce trade promotion effect is the main support for the sustainability of their bilateral diplomatic ties and their respective ability to cope with external shocks. Based on the relatively homogeneous diplomatic relationship asset background between China and Africa, this paper utilizes the duration of political relations with weak punishment and strong punishment mechanism, and uses the investment intensity variable measured by the level of diplomatic ties, so as to overcome the endogenous problems between diplomatic activities and trade and incorporate the impact of conflict force on the bilateral relations. Using the trade data of 40 African countries from 2001 to 2017, this paper constructs a Panel Corrected Standard Error Model (PCSE) to examine whether the China African relationship assets have promotion effect on bilateral trade and trade in primary and manufactured goods. It is found that, relationship assets significantly promote China African trade, but there are two opposite mechanisms of relationship assets affecting trade, i.e., the trade promotion effect of relationship duration as non pure public goods, and the trade dilution effect of relationship assets on larger scale economies. China’s economic growth plays a relatively strong driving role in the bilateral export trade, and China’s tariff reduction and exemption policies towards African countries can significantly promote bilateral trade with the characteristics of reciprocity, but differential impact on sub categories exist. China and African countries should join forces to increase relationship investment intensity in order to further give play to the effect of inertia and the trade promotion effect of bilateral relations, and use trade to facilitate and support the development of the comprehensive China Africa strategic partnership.