中国进口贸易影响因素的实证分析

改革开放以来 ,我国进口贸易额逐年递增 ,为我国经济的快速增长作出了重要的贡献。而影响我国进口贸易的因素有很多 ,且不同的因素变量之间往往存在多重共线性或近似多重共线性关系 ,使得运用传统方法所得的结论往往不是很理想。运用新型的多元统计数据分析方法——偏最小二乘 (PL S)回归方法 ,分析了影响我国进口贸易的因素以及其影响程度 ,为我国今后外贸政策的制订提供了有益的定量依据。

An Empirical Analysis of Impact Factors of Imports in China

Imports is increased year by year since the reform and opening of China, and it played an important role on China's economic growth. There are many factors that influence China's import. As multi collinearity or similar multi collinearity exist among these factors, the empirical result based on traditional methods are not satisfactory. This paper adopts a new analysis method of multivariate statistical data--the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression to analyze the impact factors to import in China, and the degree of impact. The conclusions are beneficial to international trade policy in China.