中国和香港房地产泡沫度的实证研究

当前我国房地产泡沫的严重程度成为人们关注的焦点,本文将引入金融中介之前的、一般竞争均衡状态下的房地产价格作为房地产基本价值,实证研究了中国和香港的房地产泡沫度。结果表明,与香港楼市高峰时相比,当前我国总体上的房地产泡沫度并不高,还不足以对我国房地产市场现阶段的健康发展带来严重危害;我国内地省市的房地产泡沫度一般较低,一些沿海地区的房地产泡沫度相对较高。指标法的分析结果进一步支持了上述结论。

Empirical Research on the Size of Real Estate Bubbles of China and Hong Kong

The size of bubbles in China’s real estate sector has become a focus of attentions.Neglecting financial intermediaries,this paper takes real estate price under general competition equilibrium as the fundamental value of real estate,and then empirically studies the size of real estate bubbles of China and Hong Kong.We find that compared to the real estate market peak of Hong Kong,the size of real estate bubbles of China is not so large as to bring serious harm to the recent healthy development of real estate market of China.The size of real estate bubbles of China inland is generally small,and is relatively large in some coastal areas.Results of further analysis based on index support these conclusions.