国民收入流量矩阵的编制与预测方法研究

本文首先在国家统计局公布的资金流量（实物交易）表的基础上编制了1992-2008年的“部门×交易(S-by-T)”和“部门×部门(S-by-S)”国民收入流量矩阵，设计了一个国民收入流量组合预测模型（The combination forecasting model for national income flow. NCFM），表述了编表的内容、方法、步骤，配合该模型又设计了国民收入动态均衡模型（The dynamic equilibrium model for national income flow. NDEM）和单方程模型对主要控制总量进行预测，采用状态空间模型对所预测的总量进行了部门和交易分解，用DRAS法编制了2009和2010年的“S-by -T”国民收入流量矩阵的延长表，用“部门收入转移法（SITM）”编制了各年度的“S-by-S”表。最后用Theil’s U、SWAD和STPE三种方法分别对数据质量进行了检验。

The Method Study on the Compilation and Prediction of National Income Flow Matrix

Firstly,this paper made "sectors by transactions(S-by-T) "and"sectors by sectors(S-by-S)" national income flow matrix of 1992—2008 according to the flow of funds Accounts(Physical Transaction) published by NBS.Secondly,the paper designed a combination model(NCFM) for forecasting national income flow,Thirdly,the paper designed a dynamic equilibrium model(NDEM) and the single equation to predict the main controlled gross value of national income flow,then decomposed the prediction gross value by using the state space model,and made the matrix("S-by-T") of national income flow extension(2009—2010) by using DRAS method and made the matrix("S-by-S") of national income flow(1992—2008) by using "Sectors Income Transfer Method(SITM)".Finally,we used three methods(Theil’s U,SWAD and STPE) to test the data quality.