资本流动与货币危机

旨在阐释资本流动与货币危机的关系,强调资本流动总量的波动对货币危机的动态影响,即过度资本流入诱发货币危机,资本流入的“突然停止”或逆转导致货币危机的深化,这种深化在国内表现为剧烈的经济衰退,在国际上则表现为货币危机的“传染”。因此,防范危机的关键在于有效管理资本流动,降低其波动性。

Capital Flows and Currency Crisis

The relationship between capital flows and currency crisis is illustrated. The fluctuation of gross capital flows has dynamic effects on currency crisis: excessive capital inflows will lead to currency crisis, and then sudden stop or reverse flows will deteriorate the crisis. The deterioration expresses as severe domestic economic recession or wide-spread international currency crisis. So the key to prevent currency crisis is the effective management of capital flows and the reduction in fluctuation.