碳税改革的低碳发展效应

中国正面临着气候变化、环境保护以及能源安全等方面的严峻挑战，而发展低碳经济是应对这些挑战的一项重要战略选择。通过引入碳税、碳排放、碳存量以及人力资本等变量对经典RBC模型进行拓展，基于拓展后的模型模拟分析碳税改革的低碳发展效应。结果显示:从长期效应看，增加碳税收入同时减少资本税和工资税扭曲效应的碳税改革能够有效抑制碳排放和降低碳存量，并促使企业提高减排的积极性；从短期效应看，碳税改革不仅能够带来碳排放和碳存量的减少，而且会通过影响人力资本的机制对产出形成正向影响。由此看来，选择合适碳税改革路径以及恰当运用碳税工具将能够有效推动中国当前低碳经济的发展。

The Effect of Carbon Tax Reform on Low Carbon Development

China is facing serious challenges such as climate change，environmental protection and energy security，and developing a low-carbon economy is an important strategic option to address these challenges. Therefore，this paper extends the classical RBC model by introducing carbon tax，carbon emission，carbon stock and human capital. Based on the extended model，the low carbon development effect of carbon tax reform is simulated and analyzed. The results show that，the carbon tax reform which increases carbon tax income and reduces the distortion effect of capital tax and payroll tax，can effectively restrain carbon emissions and reduce carbon stock，and impel enterprises to increase their enthusiasm for emission reduction in the long-term. From the short-term effect，carbon tax reform can not only bring about the reduction of carbon emissions and carbon stock，but also have a positive impact on output through influencing the mechanism of human capital. In view of this，choosing the appropriate path of carbon tax reform and properly using carbon tax tools will effectively promote the development of China's low-carbon economy.