农药残留限量标准对中国大陆柑橘出口贸易影响的实证分析

目前,中国大陆柑橘出口面对各国和地区农药残留限量标准的压力与困境已显现,特别是发达国家和地区的高标准一定程度地限制中国大陆柑橘的出口能力.分析了中国大陆柑橘出口的流量和流向的现状：出口整体上呈现出波动中增加的趋势；出口市场的集中度很高,品种和出口流向缺乏多元性,存在着巨大贸易风险；中国大陆柑橘出口流向以亚洲为主,欧美发达国家的市场占有率很低.对各国和地区进口柑橘的MRLs体系的对比分析表明：中国大陆柑橘农药残留限量标准在检测种类和检测标准上与发达国家和地区差距非常大,极易导致中国大陆柑橘的贸易出口遭受发达国家和地区设置的技术性贸易壁垒；东南亚发展中国家和地区的农药残留限量标准略低于中国大陆,一定程度上减少了中国大陆在这些区域遭受贸易摩擦的可能.运用引力模型实证分析,结果表明：进口国和地区的农药残留限量标准成为影响中国大陆柑橘出口贸易的重要阻碍因素.提出了化解此类技术壁垒相关政策建议：建立与国际接轨的柑橘MRLs体系；推进柑橘产业标准化生产；建立健全柑橘MRLs的预警机制.

An Empirical Study on Influence of Maximum Residue Limits of Pesticides on Mainland China＇s Citrus Export Trade

At present,export of mainland China~s citrus is under pressure from the maximum resi- due limits of pesticides standard, especially the high standard of developed countries and regions, to a cer- tain degree, restricts the export capacity of citrus in mainland China. This paper analyzes the current sit- uation of flow and flow direction of mainland China＇s citrus export, export of citrus in general shows the increasing tendency in the process of fluctuation; the intensity of export market is high, variety and ex- port flow are short of diversity and huge trade risk exists~ mainland China＇ s citrus export mainly flows to Asia and the occupancy rate in European and American markets is quite low. The comparision of im- porting citrus MRLs system among different countries and regions shows that the gap of maximum resi- due limits of pesticides of citrus between mainland China and developed countries and regions in testing types and testing standard is very large,which will easily results in technical trade barrier for mainland China~s citrus export. However,standard of residue limits of pesticides in developing countries and re- gions of southeastern Asia is slightly lower than that of mainland China, which to a certain extent, re- duces the possibility of trade friction of mainland China＇ s citrus in these areas. Based on analysis of using the gravity model, this paper finds that standard o{ residue limits of pesticides in importing countries and regions has become an important obstacle which greatly influences mainland China~s citrus export trade. Consequently,this paper proposes several policy suggestions on how to neutralize such technical barri ers：to build the citrus MRLs system joining up with international system, push forward the standardized production of citrus industry and establish perfect citrus MRLs warning mechanism.