我国柑橘国际竞争力动态演变及其影响因素实证研究

以波特的国际竞争理论为指导,运用因子分析法和多元线性回归模型,实证分析了1992-2011年间我国柑橘产业国际竞争综合实力的动态演变以及各影响因素.结果表明,我国柑橘产业国际竞争力存在3个不同的分水岭：第一阶段是20世纪末亚洲金融危机以前（1997）；第二个阶段是20世纪末亚洲金融危机至入世前期（1997-2003）；第三阶段是自2004年我国正式实施柑橘产业发展规划至今.研究发现,国际市场环境、国内宏观产业政策及微观经济条件变化是导致我国柑橘产业国际竞争力波动的重要原因.因此,需要建立柑橘产业质量可追溯体系和突发事件预警机制,发展规模经营,进一步落实柑橘产业规划,从微观和宏观2个方面提高我国柑橘产业国际竞争力.

Empirical Study on Dynamic Evolution and its Influencing Factors of International Competitiveness of China＇s Citrus Industry

Based on Porter＇s international competitiveness theories, this paper empirically analyzes dynamic evolution and its influencing factors of international competitiveness of citrus industry from 1992 to 2011 in China with the help of principal component analysis（PCA） and multiple linear regression model（MLRM）. The result shows that there are 3 different stages related to the international competi- tiveness of citrus industry in China. The first stage is before the financial crisis in Asia （1997）. The sec- ond stage is from financial crisis in Asia to China＇s entering WTO. The third stage is from 2004 when the project of citrus industry was formally carried out to the present period. The research demonstrates that international market environment, domestic macro-industrial policy and micro-economic condition result in the fluctuation of international competitiveness of China＇ s citrus industry. Therefore, it is ur- gent to construct the quality tracing system and emergency warning mechanism, develop scale operation and further carry out the project of citrus industry so that international competitiveness of China＇s citrus industry can be enhanced from both microcosmic and macroscopic points.