中国宗教的三色市场

加强宗教管制的实际效果是否能够减低人们的宗教信仰和行为?加强宗教管制只能是导致宗教市场的复杂化,即出现三个宗教市场:合法的红市,非法的黑市,以及既不合法也不非法或既合法又非法的灰市。只要宗教组织在数量和活动上受到政府限制,黑市就必然会出现;只要红市受到限制和黑市受到镇压,灰市就必然会出现;宗教管制越严,宗教灰市越大。需要引起注意的是:宗教灰色市场越大,新兴宗教就越有可能兴盛,从而带来社会的不稳定。灰色市场的存在及运作机制,显示宗教管制效果的局限并不以人们的主观努力为转移。

Triple Religious Markets in China

Does increased religious regulation lead to lower religious faith and practice in a society? Based on the economics of religion in the new paradigm of the social scientific study of religion,this article argues that increased religious regulation will not lead to religious demise,but to complication.It will result in triple religious markets: the legal red market,the illegal black market,and the neither legal nor illegal or both legal and illegal gray market.With empirical evidence and logic,this article discusses three of the theoretical propositions of the triple market: To the extent that religious organizations are restricted in number and in operation,a black market will emerge in spite of high costs to individuals.To the extent that a red market is restricted and a black market is suppressed,a gray market will emerge.The more restrictive and suppressive is the regulation,the larger the gray market.Moreover, under heavy regulation,the gray market is likely to be large,volatile,unsettled,and destined to be a fertile ground for new religious movements.The existence and dynamics of the gray market show that the limited effect of religious regulation is beyond subjective desires.