传统工业园区实现“双碳”目标路径研究

为实现党中央、国务院在应对全球气候变化时所作出的碳达峰碳中和重大战略计划，传统工业园区将成为未来一段时期内实现工业部门精准脱碳研究的关键靶点。梳理江苏最大的化工园区——南京江北新材料科技园的碳排放量、排放强度以及排放来源，利用Tapio脱钩模型探究碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩关系，然后利用LMDI法分解园区碳排放驱动因素，进而建立多情景仿真模型探索园区碳减排的潜力和实现双碳目标的路径。研究表明，园区目前能源消费过度依赖于化石能源，碳排放与经济发展之间存在着负脱钩状态，产值结构持续推动园区碳排放升高，而能源强度则是促进园区减排的主导因素。仿真结果显示，未来通过能源结构调整、技术革新、产业结构优化和CCUS技术协同应用有助于园区率先实现双碳目标。通过定量分析验证了南京江北新材料科技园可以早日实现双碳目标，同时为园区提出建设性的政策意见，进而能够为其他传统工业园区日后的绿色低碳转型发展提供实际参考。

Research on the Roadmap of Traditional Industrial Parks to Achieve Carbon Peak and Neutrality Goals

In order to realize the major strategic plan of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality made by the Party Central Committee and the State Council in response to global climate change, traditional industrial parks will become a key target for the research on precise decarbonization of the industrial sector in the coming period. This paper sorts out the carbon emissions, emission intensity and emission sources of the Nanjing Jiangbei New Area New Materials Science and Technology Park, the largest chemical park in Jiangsu, and uses the Tapio decoupling model to explore the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Then, the LMDI method is used to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions in the park, and then a multi-scenario simulation model is established to explore the potential of carbon emission reduction in the park and the path to achieve the dual carbon goals. Research shows that the current energy combustion in the park is overly dependent on fossil energy, and there is a negative decoupling between carbon emissions and economic development. The output value structure continues to promote the increase of carbon emissions in the park, and energy intensity is the leading factor in promoting the park's emission reduction. The simulation results show that in the future, through energy structure adjustment, technological innovation, industrial structure optimization and the coordinated application of CCUS technology, it will help the park to take the lead in realizing the dual carbon goal. Through quantitative analysis, this paper verifies that Nanjing Jiangbei New Materials Science and Technology Park can achieve the ‘Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality’ goal as soon as possible, and at the same time puts forward constructive policy opinions for the park, which can then provide practical reference for the green and low-carbon transformation and development of other traditional industrial parks in the future.