碳中和目标下气候政策研究的前沿问题

在百年未有之大变局下，碳中和目标的实现不再是“就碳论碳”，而是与数字革命、新冠疫情、地缘冲突等国内外重要形势密切关联，亟需以更宽阔的学科视野、在更精细的时空格局上开展更系统的气候政策研究。基于对气候政策研究发展进程的回顾和对未来研究趋势的研判，提出气候政策研究在多维风险和效益、多主体行为响应机制、碳中和转型路线优化三个方面的前沿动向和发展需求:一是权衡系统零碳转型的风险与效益，评估气候政策实施的成本、效益及其在不同时空、不同人群中的分配差异，为把握好降碳的节奏和力度提供理论依据；二是识别需求侧行为的驱动和激励机制，设计面向福祉和公平的碳中和行为干预措施与政策，为动员广泛的社会参与提供政策牵引；三是研究碳中和关键战略性技术的定位及其路线图施工图，通过因地制宜、因时制宜的技术部署攻克转型过程中系统协调发展、产业步调一致的难题，为碳中和协同促进高质量发展提供政策方案。发挥这些关键科学认识对碳中和转型的促进作用，还需要突破新一代气候政策模型的开发，解决微观不确定性模拟与宏观综合评估模型的耦合问题，将风险感知、技术扩散、投融资与消费行为、政策影响与反馈等气候—社会—技术系统的关键过程纳入综合评估模型。

Frontiers of Climate Policy Research under Carbon Neutral Goals

Under the unprecedented changes of the century, the achievement of carbon neutral goals is no longer just focused on carbon emissions, but is also closely related to digital revolution, COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and other important situations at home and abroad. Consequently, there is an urgent need to conduct more systematic climate policy research with a broader disciplinary perspective and a more detailed spatial and temporal pattern. Based on the review of the development process of climate policy research and the judgment of future research trends, the frontiers and development needs of climate policy research are proposed in three aspects, including multidimensional risks and benefits, multi-agent behavioral response mechanisms, and optimization of carbon neutral transition routes. The first aspect is to weigh the risks and benefits of a systematic zero-carbon transition, assess the costs and benefits of climate policy deployment and their distributional differences across time and space and among different populations, and provide a theoretical basis for grasping the pace and intensity of carbon reduction. The second aspect is to identify the driving and incentive mechanisms of demand-side behaviors, design carbon-neutral behavioral interventions and policies for well-being and equity, and provide policy traction for mobilizing broad social participation. The third aspect is to study the positioning and roadmap of key strategic technologies for carbon neutrality, overcome the challenges of coordinated development of different systems and keeping consistent pace among various industries in the transition process through locally and temporally appropriate technology deployment, and provide policy solutions for carbon neutrality to promote high-quality development. To leverage these key scientific understandings for carbon neutral transformation, there is a need to break through the development of a new generation of climate policy models, address the coupling of micro uncertainty simulation and macro integrated assessment models, and incorporate key processes of the climate-society-technology system such as risk perception, technology diffusion, investment and financing, consumption behavior, and policy impact and feedback into integrated assessment models.