台湾经济发展规律探析——以经济增长、产业结构演变及对外贸易为视角

以经济增长、产业结构演变及对外贸易为视角探析台湾经济发展规律,这有助于对未来台湾经济发展趋势的判断.研究结果可见,台湾经济发展规律表现为经济增长经历了高速增长、中速增长和低速增长三个循环周期,经济结构不断升级,于20世纪90年代逐步向后工业化社会发展,服务业成为主导部门;台湾经济增长过程就是经济结构转变的过程,出口是台湾经济增长的重要动力.据此,可预测台湾经济在21世纪初期出现逆转后将进入低速增长时期,未来相当一段时间内将继续在低位徘徊.

Economic Development in Taiwan: From the Perspectives of Economic Growth Circle, evolution of industrial structure and foreign trade

Economic growth in Taiwan has undergone three cycles, i.e. the rapid growth circle, the moderate growth circle and the slow growth circle. Its economic structure kept on improving and gradually entered into a period of post-industrial development in the 1990s in which the service industry became a leading industry. The process of economic growth in Taiwan was a process of changes of its economic structure. Export trade was the major driving force behind its economic growth. At the turn of the 21st century, Taiwan suffered an economic downturn and went into a period of slow growth. It is predicted that for any length of time in the future Taiwan's economy will continue to grow at a slow rate.