国外技术预测理论与实践进展

对技术发展趋势和新兴技术的潜力进行系统性预测是国际上技术经济领域备受关注的研究课题。对国外近年来技术预测领域的相关研究成果和所使用的技术预测方法进行回顾,将主流技术预测方法划分为模型化方法、统计和数据挖掘方法以及描述性方法三类,对各类方法的优点和局限加以梳理,并总结现有文献对不同方法的比较研究。

Theoretical and practical advances in technology innovation forecasting

Systematical prediction of technological advance, as well as the evaluation of the potentials of emerging technologies, has been a research field that drawn substantial interest globally. The advances are comprehensively reviewed in both the relevant research results and the methodologies in the field of technology forecasting in recent years. According to the proposed review, the mainstream methods of technology forecasting are classified into 3 categories: model-based methods, statistical and data mining-based methods, and descriptive methods. The advantages and limitations of different types of methods are reviewed and the various results from comparative research between different methods are summarized.