基于VEC模型的国债发行额影响因素分析

本文基于VEC模型，并运用协积检验、格兰杰检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术，对我国国债发行额的影响因素进行实证分析。结果显示，我国国债发行额与国内生产总值（GDP）、财政赤字、国债还本付息、国债余额、居民储蓄和贷款余额存在着长期稳定的均衡关系，影响国债发行额的主要因素有国债发行额本身、国内生产总值（GDP）、财政赤字、居民储蓄和国债还本付息。

Influencing Factors of the Amount of National Debt:Based on VEC Model Analysis

On the basis of VEC Model,this paper uses Cointegration test,Granger Causality test,Impulse Responses and Variance Decompositions to make an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the amount of National Debt.It is found that it has a long-term relationship with GDP,fiscal deficit,debt service,debt balance,household saving and loan balance;the main determinants are the amount of National Debt itself,GDP,fiscal deficit,household saving and debt service.