中国公司对外直接投资理论及实证分析

自2008年国际金融危机全面爆发以来，伴随国际经济动荡与国际市场风险的不断加剧，中国公司对外直接投资反而出现逆市爆发性增长。西方发展成熟的跨国公司理论对于探讨中国公司对外直接投资理论具有启发意义，但是不适用或者不完全适用中国公司，借助最新研究成果，将中国公司对欧美发达国家直接投资的“真实选择权”理论进一步推广至广大发展中国家，并建构计量经济学模型，利用中国公司2010年以来对外直接投资的月度数据进行实证分析与检验。分析认为，作为新兴市场的典型代表和“世界加工厂”，中国公司对外直接投资的根本动因就是在海外建立或获取一种“真实选择权”，以规避日益扩大的国际资源价格风险与人民币汇率风险；换言之，国际市场风险越高，海外“真实选择权”价值越大，中国公司对外直接投资就越多，反之亦然。分析结果表明，利用2010年以来中国公司对外直接投资的月度数据进行的实证分析与实证检验结果完全支持“真实选择权”理论。

Theoretical and empirical analysis of outward foreign direct investment of Chinese companies

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, there was the explosive growth against the market in outward foreign direct investment of Chinese companies with the intensification of international economic turmoil and international market risk. The mature theory of transnational corporations in the west has enlightening significance for exploring the theory of outward foreign direct investment of Chinese companies, but it was not applicable or not fully applicable of Chinese companies. By resorting to the latest research results, the “real option” theory of Chinese companies’ direct investment to European and American developed countries was further promoted to a large number of developing countries, and econometric models were constructed. Empirical analysis and tests were carried out by using the monthly data of Chinese companies’ outward foreign direct investment since 2010. It is concluded that as a typical representative of emerging markets and a “world processing factory”, the fundamental reason for outward foreign direct investment of Chinese companies is to establish or obtain a “real option” overseas to avoid the growing price risk of international resources and RMB exchange rate risk; in other words, the higher the international market risk, the greater the value of “real option” overseas and the more outward foreign direct investment of Chinese companies, and vice versa. The results show that the empirical analysis and test results from the monthly data of Chinese companies’ outward foreign direct investment since 2010 fully support the theory of “real option”.