自然异动下关键基础设施网络风险研究

关键基础设施保护是突发事件应急管理的重要对象构成，确定风险和保护排序是其保护机制的基本依据。在自然异动约束下，本文将信息扩散理论的超越概率引入风险分析模型，研究跨区域网络级联失效造成的风险，提出了确定关键基础设施网络构件的风险等级及保护排序的方法。以覆冰灾害下电网为例，研究了电网中不同支路在覆冰灾害下面临风险程度，与基本脆弱点进行对比，验证以异动风险作为保护参考的合理性。

Study on Critical Infrastructure Network Risk with Natural Disaster

Critical infrastructure protecting is an important part of emergency management, and determining risk and protecting order is the basis of protection mechanism. With the threat of natural disaster, exceeding probability of information diffusion theory is introduced into the risk model to study the cascade effect risk of network about trans-regional critical infrastructure. Further a method is propased to determine the degree of risk and protect order about critical infrastructure network. Taking power grid with ice disasters for example, the risk of network cascade effect is studied, and the rationality of regarding this kind of risk to be as protection reference is verifed.