入世后中美食糖价格联动效应动态变化的实证研究——基于2002—2012年中美食糖价格数据

以2002—2012年中美食糖价格序列作为研究对象,实证检验了入世以来两国食糖价格联动关系的总体状况以及2002—2005、2006—2008和2009—2012三个时段的动态变化情况。结果表明:中美食糖价格之间存在显著而稳定的长期均衡关系,两国糖价变动均受到这种均衡关系的影响,美国糖价变动是中国糖价变动的原因。分段结果进一步显示,两国价格引导关系由"中国糖价单向引导美国糖价"向"美国糖价单向引导中国糖价"演变,长期均衡关系仅在2006—2008年时段消失,这主要与入世以来中国食糖供需平衡状况、贸易量以及食糖政策等因素有关。

Empirical Research on Dynamic Change of Linkage Relationship between Chinese and American Sugar Prices since China's Entry into WTO Based on Sugar Price Data during 2002-2012

Based on Chinese and American sugar price data during 2002-2012,this paper measures empirically the sugar prices linkage relationship.Furthermore,it compares the dynamic changes of the linkage effect among 2002-2005,2006-2008 and 2009-2012.It draws the conclusion that the sugar prices have a significant and stable co-integration relationship,and both are ruled by the change of the influence of the inner equilibrium relationship.The change of the US’ sugar price is the Granger reasons of China’s sugar price.The comparison results of three periods shows that "China sugar price one-way guides the United States sugar price" has turned to "the United States sugar price one-way guides the Chinese sugar price".The stability of the co-integration relationship between China and the United States does not exist obviously only during 2006-2008.This change is mainly attributed to China’s domestic sugar supply and demand balance condition,sugar trading volume and domestic sugar industrial policy.