Prediction intervals with a Dirichlet-process prior distribution

Let X₁, …,X_n, and Y₁, … Y_n be consecutive samples from a distribution function F which itself is randomly chosen according to the Ferguson (1973) Dirichlet-process prior distribution on the space of distribution functions. Typically, prediction intervals employ the observations X₁,…, X_n in the first sample in order to predict a specified function of the future sample Y₁, …, Y_n. Here one- and two-sided prediction intervals for at least q of N future observations are developed for the situation in which, in addition to the previous sample, there is prior information available. The information is specified via the parameter α of the Dirichlet process prior distribution.