外国直接投资的贸易效应与人民币汇率走向

在中国对外贸易主体构成中,外商投资企业取代国有企业成为主体,其对出口或进口增长的贡献率更高,在由于外资流入引致贸易结构发生变动的条件下,人民币贬值无助于贸易顺差的实现。并且,由于外国直接投资在固定资产形成中比重日益提高以及中国经济增长阶段的变迁,经济增长的外部动力已经由出口拉动转向资本主导,贸易结构的变迁以及经济增长内在地要求人民币保持强势地位,并进行相应的灵活性调整。

Analysis of Trade Effect of FDI and the Trend of RMB Exchange Rate

Relying on the Chinese statistical figures of 1986-2002, the thesis analyses trade effect of FDI. The thesis holds that foreign investment enterprises as main body substituting state-owned enterprises make more contributions to Chinese foreign trade.Due to the change in the trade structure caused by the influx of foreign capital, RMB devaluation does not facilitate the realization of trade surplus. Outer strength of economic growth has shifted from export orientation to capital orientation, since the ratio of FDI is being lifted and China is still in the midst of system and mechanism transitions. It is a proper choice to maintain the relative stability of RMB exchange rate and make some flexible adjustments.