突发事件网络舆情风险演化规律及防控策略

突发事件网络舆情不仅是公众感知社会风险的自我表达，也是公众风险应对行为的重要参照。突发事件发生后，网络舆情风险演化在不同阶段表现出不同规律：萌发期呈现出舆情风险突变规律式演化；扩散期呈现出舆情风险涟漪效应式演化；高涨期呈现出舆情风险共振规律式演化；消退期呈现出舆情风险耗散规律式演化。突发事件网络舆情风险演化的生成动因是固有因素、人为因素、环境因素和管理因素等多重因素共同作用的结果，其中包括社会隐性风险与舆情风险相叠加、公众感知风险增加舆情变换风险、网络环境失衡加速舆情风险扩散、公共管理风险导致舆情风险反复。为推进突发事件网络舆情风险防控工作有序开展，应强化舆情风险沟通理念与防控意识，完善舆情风险防控法律保障体系，构建舆情风险防控常态长效机制，提高舆情风险防控技术创新水平。

The Risk Evolution Law and Prevention and Control Strategy of Emergency Network Public Opinion

Emergency network public opinion is not only the self-expression of public perception of social risk,but also an important reference for public risk response.After the occurrence of emergencies,the risk evolution of network public opinion shows different rules in different stages:the sudden change and regular evolution of public opinion risk in the germination period,the ripple effect in the diffusion period,and the resonance in the high rising period,and dissipation in the recession period.The generation motivation of risk evolution of emergency network public opinion is the result of multiple factors,such as inherent factors,human factors,environmental factors and management factors,including the superposition of social hidden risk and public opinion risk.Public perception risk increases public opinion transformation risk,network environment imbalance accelerates public opinion risk diffusion,and public management risk leads to public opinion risk repetition.In order to promote the prevention and control work,we should strengthen the concept of public opinion risk communication and awareness of prevention and control,improve the legal protection system of public opinion risk prevention and control,build a normal long-term mechanism for public opinion risk prevention and control,and improve the technological innovation level.