基于改进模糊综合评价法的信用评估体系研究—以我国中小上市公司为样本的实证研究

分析我国中小企业目前的融资困境及其根源,提出改进模糊综合评价模型—AFF模型(Analytic hierarchy process- Factor Analysis- Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation)对中小企业进行信用评估。该模型在进行指标权重决策问题时,不仅考虑了复杂大群体决策的不确定性,更是将主观赋权法和客观赋权法思想相结合,提出以基于群决策的AHP方法确定主观权重,基于因子分析法(FA)确定客观权重,最后将主客观权重集结得到指标的综合权重。模型既克服了传统主观因素赋权的不足,又充分考虑客观因素,而且引入了群体决策的思想,拓展了模糊综合评价法的应用,更具理论实际意义。选取信息技术服务业53家公司为样本,利用该模型进行了实证分析,验证了该模型的适用性、稳定性和客观性。分析结果表明,采用AFF模型能准确地得到公司的信用等级,并能发现导致公司信用状况不佳的相关因素,通过对相关因素的剖析,帮助领导者和决策者改善公司信用状况,具有较强的实践意义。AFF模型在各类理论与实践的综合评价中均具有应用和推广价值。

The Study of Credit Evaluation System Based on Improved Fuzzy Evaluation Method—Evidence from Small and medium-sized enterprises in China

With the analysis of the current financing difficulties and its causes of SMEs in China, the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model—AFF model(Analytic hierarchy process- Factor Analysis- Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation) is proposed in this paper, in order to deal with the credit assessment on SMEs. During the index weight in decision-making problems, the proposed model considered the uncertainty of a complex large group decision-making, and the problem of index weights in the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is discussed, combined subjective weighting method with the objective weighting method. Based on that group decision making AHP determined the subjective weights and factor analysis determined the objective weights, there goes the comprehensive weight determined by the multiplication normalization formula. The model not only overcomes the shortcomings of traditional subjective factors empowerment method, but also takes full account of objective factors, and introduced the idea of group decision-making, expanding the application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, with more theoretical practical significance. 53 companies of IT service industry are selected as the sample, the model is used to do empirical analysis, which verifies the model's applicability, stability and objectivity. The results show that the AFF model can accurately get the company's credit rating, and can find some relevant factors that will lead to bad credit. With the analysis of the relevant factors, it can help leaders and decision-makers to improve the company's credit situation, thus has a strong practical significance. AFF model has both application and popularization in the comprehensive evaluation area.