预测精度和成本双时变的短生命周期产品供应链优化与协调

对于提前期可压缩的短生命周期产品供应链,压缩提前期可以提高销售商的需求预测精度,但增加了制造商的生产成本,因而供应链面临何时订货、订多少,以及如何实现Pareto改进的挑战。通过建立数学模型并求解,分析了分散系统和集中系统的最优决策,进一步开发了一个激励方案以实现供应链成员之间的协调。研究结果表明:具有订货回馈与惩罚的动态批发价契约能够有效协调双时变参数供应链,契约参数α在一定范围内取值可实现供需双方共赢。

Optimization and Coordination for Short-life-cycle Product Supply Chain with Double Time-varying Parameters of Forecast Accuracy and Cost

For a short-life-cycle product supply chain with controlled lead-time, the lead-time compression would raise the demand forecast accuracy of distributor, while would increase the production cost of manufacturer as well. So the supply chain management is obliged to solve the optimal ordering point and the optimal ordering quantity, as well as the coordination of distributor and manufacturer. The decision models of decentralized and centralized supply chain were proposed respectively. The optimal decisions of each party in both decentralized and centralized systems were solved. Further, an incentive scheme is developed to facilitate coordination between the two parties. The results show that the dynamic wholesale price contract based on order rebate and penalty policy is able to coordinate the supply chain with double time-varying parameters effectively, and this contract allows the system efficiency to be achieved as well as to improve the profits of all parties by tuning the contract parameter α.