析台港新中国国际地位与外交前景研估的偏颇

台港地区长期以来对新中国的国际地位与外交前景存在着两种不同的观点:一种认为中国的国际影响力会愈以减弱,外交前景暗淡无光;一种则认为中国大陆将成为新的“世界超级大国”,甚至有“中国威胁论”的奇谈怪调。两者都颇有辨析之必要:一方面,50多年来,新中国已经成为对世界政治经济有重要影响的大国,国际声望日隆,外交舞台日益开阔;另一方面,不管是从文化渊源、对外政策抑或是国家实力上看,中国都不会致力于成为一个“超级大国”,亦难以成为“超级大国”,“中国威胁论”大可休矣。

A Probe of the Biased View of Taiwan and Hong Kong in the Estimation of New China's International Status and its Prospect of Foreign Relations

For a long time Taiwan and Hong Kong has been holding two different views toward New China's international status and its prospects for foreign relations: one that China's influence upon international affairs is to be weakened with dim prospects in foreign relations;one that main land China is going to be " new super power in the world",a strange tale being told of "the threat of China." Both views invite discernment.On the one hand,for more than fifty years since the foundation of new China,it has become a leading country with important influences in world politics and economy so that its international fame is growing rapidly with an ever broadening stage of diplomatic relations.On the other hand,in terms of historical,cultural traditions,foreign policy or state power,it is unlikely for China to make any effort to become a super power in spite of the fact that it is really hard for China to become one.Thus we may get rid of the fear of "the threat of China" and cease the fire of concerning argument.