我国开征碳税的碳减排效果分析

随着温室效应造成的气候变迁和气候灾害逐渐凸显，各国都面临着碳减排的压力。部分欧盟国家开征碳税来控制碳排放，而美国却不推崇碳税。碳税政策是利用税收产生的替代效应和收入效应，迫使人们改用清洁能源或提高能源使用效率，使化石燃料消费比未课税的情况下减少。对中国燃料价格和碳排放的因果关系分析结果表明，碳排放变化是燃料价格变化的格兰杰原因，〖JP2〗而燃料价格变化不是碳排放变化的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析的结果说明了中国化石燃料需求的〖JP〗刚性，预计在中国开征碳税所能实现的碳减排效果不会显著。

Analysis on effect of levying carbon tax on greenhouse gas reduction in China

As climate change and natural disasters gradually highlighted due to the greenhouse effect,every country is facing the pressure of reducing carbon emissions.Some EU countries levy carbon tax to control carbon emission,while USA doesn’t prefer it.The policy of carbon tax compels people to use clean energy or raise energy efficiency through the substitution effect and income effect of the tax,in order to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel than before.The result of causality analysis on fuel price and carbon emissions in China shows that change of carbon emission is the Granger cause of change of fuel price,while change of fuel price is not the Granger cause of change of carbon emission.The result of impulse response test shows the rigid demand on fossil fuel in China,and it is estimated that the effect of levying carbon tax on realization of reducing carbon emission will not be significant in China.