Getting closure: The role of urban forest canopy density in moderating summer surface temperatures in a large city

With a growing number of people living in urban areas, city residents are more frequently exposed to stresses related to the built environment including elevated summer surface temperatures contributing to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This study examines the role of urban tree density in moderating surface temperature variation in a densely populated city (Toronto, Canada). By applying parallel aspatial (OLS) and spatial regression (GWR) approaches with satellite derived data describing tree canopy density and surface temperature, one dimension of tree canopy quality (i.e., canopy density) is shown to contribute directly to a reduction in the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect at a local scale. Though the model fit differed between the two regression approaches, both exhibited moderately strong explanatory power and demonstrated that observed surface temperature decreases in locations with increasing high-density and closed tree canopy. Study findings provide an empirical basis to recommend that municipal urban forest strategies embrace canopy quality metrics, such as increasing the density of existing urban forest stands, as a part of tree planting objectives seeking to effectively deliver temperature moderation as a valuable ecosystem service.