中国对外贸易对经济增长贡献度探索——基于VAR模型的分析

本文基于VAR模型对于进出口对经济增长的长期影响和短期影响进行了实证分析。Johansen协整检验的结果表明，从长期看出口对经济增长影响较大；脉冲响应分析的结果表明，对外贸易对经济增长的影响具有滞后性；方差分解的结果表明，进口对GDP的波动性影响较大。可见进出口对于经济增长都有贡献。所以，应实施有效的进口策略、促进贸易的平衡发展，进而保持经济的持续增长。  

Analysis of the Contribution of Foreign Trade to the Economic Growth of China on the Basis of VAR

The development of foreign is very important for the rapid growth of economy, and this paper will analyze the impacts given by the foreign trade to the growth of economy through establishing the VAR model. After learning about the relationship between Chinese foreign trade and economic growth, and then the contribution done by the Chinese foreign trade to the economic growth will be discussed deeply. On the basis of thus, some suggestions for the further development of Chinese foreign trade will be supplied, which will make much more contribution to the economic growth of China.