退耕还林成果巩固问题研究——基于退耕农户机会成本视角的动态博弈模型

退耕还林（草）工程共涉及到3200多万农户，退耕还林工程的成果巩固主要取决于政府和退耕农户的态度。本文从退耕农户进行毁林复耕的机会成本的视角，建立了政府和农户博弈的动态模型。研究认为，退耕农户毁林复耕不仅取决于退耕地复耕后的净收益，而且取决于农户转移劳动力的机会成本的大小，最后根据模型结论提出了巩固退耕还林工程成果的4点建议。

Achievement Consolidation of the Grain for Green Project： A Dynamic Game Model Based on Rural Families’ Opportunity Cost

There are over 32 million rural families involved in the Grain for Green Project. The achievement consolidation of the project mainly depends on the attitudes of government and rural families. From the view of opportunity cost of rural families ’ deforestation for farmland reclamation, a dynamic game model about government and rural families is built in this paper. The research draws a conclusion that whether the rural families make a decision of deforestation for farmland reclamation is decided not only by the net earnings after deforestation for farmland reclamation, but also by the opportunity cost of shifting families’labour force. Finally, four suggestions are given for the achievement consolidation of the Grain for Green Project.