中国农村居民收入与消费支出长期均衡关系的实证分析

采用协整理论和误差修正模型,对中国农村居民的消费和收入之间的长期稳定关系和短期调整关系进行了研究,测算了平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向系数,并引入格兰杰因果关系分析法,分析了二者之间的关系。发现近期、以至于现期农村居民收入不是影响农村居民消费性支出的最主要原因,而收入增量和消费增量之间存在着显著的因果关系,农村居民消费对农村居民收入存在着显著的影响关系。提出了保持农民收入持续增长,促进消费的建议。

Empirical Analysis on Long-term Balanced Relationship between Income and Consumption of Chinese Rural Residents

In order to clarify the long term and stable relationship between consumption and income,this paper,based on co-integration and error correction model,studied the stable relationship of income and consumption in a long term and the adjusted relationship of consumption and income in a short term for Chinese rural residents,and calculated the average consumption incline and the marginal consumption incline,then this paper introduced EG method to analyze the relationship between income and consumption.The result showed that income is not the main reason for income increase from the past till now,and this paper also found that there is a remarkable causal relationship between the increase value of income and the increase value of consumption,and the consumption obviously influences the income of rural residents.Therefore,some suggestions on how to maintain the sustainable increase of income of rural residents and how to promote the consumption are put forward in this paper.